Gallup Poll: Romney Thrashes Obama on the Economy

If you’re paying attention to the presidential race even a little bit, you’ve no doubt noticed that the national polls show the race is a statistical dead-heat. President Obama leads by a scant point or two in some polls, whereas Governor Romney leads by a narrow margin in others. Despite nasty attack ads by both camps, the race at the national level is a statistical tie for now.

Obama and Romney in Dead HeatYet if you look at the polls in the key battleground states, some interesting things are happening. Like the national polls, several polls in key swing states are starting to narrow as well, as I will discuss just below. There is also a very interesting new Gallup poll that we will take a look at after the state-by-state breakdown.

Starting on the Eastern seaboard, the VA polls have now narrowed. This is great news for Team Romney. Three polls taken from 7/16 to 7/19 have Romney and Obama in a very narrow two-point range – a statistical dead heat. This is a significant improvement over the last round of polls that had Romney trailing well beyond the margin of error.

The OH polls are also looking up for Romney. Two polls taken since 7/16 have the president up only two to three points, well within the margin of error for both polls. This is another nice bump for Romney since the last cycle. Remember that Romney must win both VA and OH to have a realistic chance at defeating Obama in November.

Let’s head south to FL. I have previously predicted that Romney will ultimately carry FL, and I still think that, but polls in FL are now all over the place. Most FL polls still show Romney trailing, but within the margin of error for the most part. This, too, is an improvement but it remains a state we need to keep an eye on.

Moving north we focus on WI, which is thought to be in-play this cycle thanks to the strength of Republican Governor Scott Walker. Or is it? In the last three polls President Obama has opened up a lead of six to eight points, which is definitely outside the margin of error for these polls. This is clearly not good news for Romney. Looking west, IA has had only one poll since our last report, and it shows a five-point lead for the president in the state, also beyond the margin of error.

CO is our next stop where the only poll taken this month shows Obama leading by a razor thin one-point margin. Obviously, CO is well in-play and a key piece of any Romney victory strategy.  Finally in NV, Obama looks to be building a lead of four to six points in two recent polls. While Romney does not have to win NV, unlike CO, he would rather be in the lead to be sure.

Now let’s take a look at the recent Gallup poll I mentioned above. As you know, there are dozens and dozens of polls out there from numerous sources. However, the Gallup polls are considered by many to be the “gold standard.” As you also know, there are numerous specific poll questions where President Obama has a sizable lead. For example, Obama is far more “likeable” than Romney.

But there is a new Gallup poll this week that is horrendously bad news for the president. It’s about the economy. Governor Romney is favored to best handle the economy over President Obama by more than a 2-1 margin (63%-29%). Let that sink in. I cannot say enough how bad this is for Obama. The #1 issue of this election is the economy, no doubt about it.

If your opponent is favored by a 2-1 margin on the issue of the economy, you are very likely in deep trouble, even if the national polls show the race is a dead-heat. We will be keeping a close watch on this in the coming weeks. If the president cannot gain some serious ground on this issue, we will very likely start to see several key swing states tilt toward Romney.

In other campaign news, look for Romney to name his Veep soon. The odds-on favorite is Senator Robert Portman of OH (surprise, surprise – Romney has to win OH). A lot of people would prefer to see Condi Rice in the VP slot, but she apparently has no interest.

Finally, it is my impression that the Obama campaign is starting to feel a sense of desperation. The president’s recent decisions to grant work permits to millions of known illegal aliens and to remove the long-standing “work requirements” from welfare are very controversial and risky. They may not be risky among his liberal base, but they almost certainly are among independent and swing voters!

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