This week we start by taking a look at Pennsylvania. PA is not in our regular roster of 2012 “battleground states,” but we need to pay attention to it. You’ll see why in a minute. President Obama has maintained a consistent lead in PA over several polls this year, and he carried the state handily in 2008. In fact, PA has not voted for the GOP candidate since 1988. However, Romney trails Obama by a mere 3 points in the latest state poll, within the margin of error. This represents quite a shift from several previous polls.
Could this poll simply be an outlier? Possibly. However, I think it may be a manifestation of the Gallup poll we touched on last week, that favored Romney by more than a 2-1 margin to best handle the economy. My point is, if PA remains within the margin of error, what does that suggest for trends in the true battleground states?
Good question…
A recent Rasmussen WI poll has Romney trailing Obama by only three points, well within the margin of error. This is a significant improvement over the last three series of polls. FL is also tightening up of late. Obama leads by a razor thin 1%. As I said last week, the FL polls have been all over the place recently, but it is nice to see this FL poll following the same pattern that seems to be emerging in the wake of the Gallup poll mentioned above. I still think Romney wins FL in the end.
Not to be left out, MI has also tightened up, giving Governor Romney a narrow 1% lead over the president. Remember that Romney’s father, George, was a very popular governor in MI, which puts the state in play this time. However, a very recent OH poll breaks this trend, showing Obama widening his lead to an impressive 8 points in the Buckeye state. This is likely an outlier, but time will tell for sure.
I am surprised that Romney has yet to name his Veep. Now that he is back from his overseas trip, an announcement could come any day now. Or he may choose to wait until after the Olympics. Personally I will be surprised if it isn’t Sen. Rob Portman of OH. We’ll see.
It is not too late for you to get in on the VeepStakes. Who do you think Romney will or should pick? Let me know by participating in our in-house poll with an email to me at gdh@profutures.com. For those of you who must know the second the VP pick is made, there is an App for that. You can go here to download it for your Android device.
A new Rasmussen poll announced last Friday found that consumer confidence fell to its lowest level of 2012 in July. Most Americans believe that both the economy and their own personal finances are getting worse. Scott Rasmussen believes this spells trouble for President Obama’s re-election. CLICK HERE for his latest analysis.
The results from another new Rasmussen poll released on Sunday are even more disturbing. Only 14% of Americans now believe that their children will enjoy a better life than they have. That’s an all-time low for this poll. This, too, cannot be good for Obama’s chances.
I want to close this week by saying that I am really disappointed in both campaigns for their lack of a positive narrative. For Ronald Reagan it was “morning in America.” George HW Bush saw “a thousand points of light” and Bill Clinton had “a bridge to the 21st century.” So far President Obama’s theme seems to be “my opponent is an old rich white guy who wants to outsource your job.” Likewise, all the Romney camp seems to muster is, “I am not Barrack Obama.”
This is really sad. We deserve better from those asking for our votes, especially from those asking to lead this great nation. Shape up gentlemen!
Thanks as usual to my colleague Spencer Wright for analyzing the election polling numbers for us each week. He always seems to know where to focus our attention.
As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions.
LATE NOTE: Today’s CBS/NYTimes Poll is Skewed!
Surprise, surprise: A new CBS/NYTimes poll out today has been identified as bogus in that they polled far more Democrats than Republicans as compared to similar polls in 2008 and 2010, especially in Florida and Ohio. The result: outsized leads for Obama in all three states polled. Here’s a link to a good article explaining all the fuss – be sure to read it.
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