We focus today by addressing the 800-pound gorilla in the room – Romney’s pick of Rep. Paul Ryan as his VP running mate, which is dominating the news. Following that discussion, be sure to read this week’s poll analysis which is very interesting. With all that’s going on, today’s blog is a little longer than usual, but well worth it.
We’ve seen lots of very interesting developments since last week. A new crop of polls begins to paint an interesting picture of the electoral landscape; the party conventions loom; the fall debate schedule has been set; and Governor Romney tapped Rep. Paul Ryan of WI to be his Veep. It’s a lot to cover in a short space, so let’s get rolling.
Last week, we asked you to vote in our “Veep Stakes” with your guess as to who Romney would pick. No one picked Rep. Paul Ryan. Most of you picked Rob Portman, Chris Christie or Tim Pawlenty. As I said I would be, I am surprised that Romney did not take Sen. Portman of Ohio.
My first reaction to the Ryan pick was that the Romney campaign was not serious about winning. Why? Paul Ryan, who I happen to admire, doesn’t help Romney win OH and Romney must win the state. It is nearly impossible to see a path to victory that does not include a win in the Buckeye State. Of course Portman would not have guaranteed OH, but like Ryan in WI, he would have helped there.
Second, Ryan may actually hurt Romney’s chances in FL, another state Romney has to win, because of all the seniors and their concerns about Ryan’s views on Medicare – even though Ryan’s budget would not change Medicare one bit for anyone older than 55.
So why did Romney pick Ryan? From all indications, Romney picked Ryan to engage in a very clear “bright-line, big issues” debate with President Obama. The Ryan pick signals that Romney plans to center his campaign on policy and the economy. That is why they have positioned the ticket as “America’s Come Back Team.” It’s a very catchy theme, no doubt, but I’m not sure how it will play nationally. At least it’s a better theme than “I am not Barack Obama.”
Here is the Paul Ryan “value proposition” in a nutshell:
Helps Romney with: The GOP base, fiscal conservatives, the Tea Party and strengthens Romney’s overall message. Ryan also puts WI in play. On top of that, Ryan is young, energetic, intelligent, very articulate, and he will mop the floor with Biden in the VP debate.
Hurts Romney with: His budget proposals that allow the Dems to “Medi-Scare” the seniors in FL and elsewhere. This is Ryan’s only significant weakness, but it could be huge.
So was the Ryan pick a good one? I think so, but only if they can dilute the deluge of Obama attacks on Ryan’s controversial budget proposals over the last two years. Team Romney has to make crystal clear that: 1) Romney, not Ryan, is running for president; 2) The Ryan budget is not the Romney budget and thus is old news; and 3) They should refuse to talk about the Ryan budget. Period, end of story.
If Romney/Ryan don’t put this story to bed, and they engage in debate about it, Obama’s strident Medi-Scare campaign against Romney/Ryan could be lethal, especially with seniors.
So who is Paul Ryan anyway? Is he the radical ultra-right threat Obama and Democrats want you to believe? Let’s listen to what former Clinton Chief-of-Staff, Erskine Bowles (Simpson-Bowles Commission), a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat, had to say about Rep. Ryan. You really need to watch this short video! Take it away, Erskine.
Folks, the Ryan pick was not a gamble as much as it was a calculated risk by Romney who is no stranger to making calculated risk decisions. We will never truly know what went into the decision process that elevated Paul Ryan over Ohio Senator Rob Portman from a must-win state, or Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, another must-win state.
There is no way to know if Romney’s selection of Ryan as his running mate will result in a big victory or a disappointing loss. As I said earlier, I am optimistic that this bold choice will ultimately result in a win. But you can bet that if Romney loses on November 6, the Paul Ryan back-biting and recriminations will begin in earnest! There will be a lot of “I told you so’s.”
Now let’s quickly turn to the latest poll developments, which are very interesting. The national polls remain reasonably tight. Of course, this all depends on where you look. The RealClearPolitics average, made up of many different polls, favors Obama by four points nationally.
As I have stated before, GALLUP is the gold standard in polling. They have never carried the taint of political bias as do many other polls. The GALLUP seven-day rolling average as of today shows the race at Romney 47% vs. Obama 45%. Last week, the race was tied at 46-46.
Moving to the state polls, President Obama continues to hold a four-point lead in VA and a five- point lead in WI. If Obama can maintain this lead in VA, even a narrow one, Romney may well be sunk. Of course the latest WI poll was taken before Ryan was on the GOP ticket. Ryan does not necessarily deliver his home state of WI on a platter, but he certainly adds to Romney’s chances in WI. That places WI firmly “in-play” and a win in the state could soften the loss of VA, should that occur.
The good news this week for Romney comes mainly from CO and IA. Team Romney has pulled to a five- point lead in CO and has edged the president in IA by two points. Remember that Romney must win CO. If he also snatches IA away from Obama AND carries WI, he can lose VA and still have a +3 electoral vote net gain to win. The vagaries of electoral calculus can be dizzying. Just wait until the fall, when all manner of scenarios will present themselves. Are we having fun yet?
I am no investment genius but I strongly disagree with your premise that Ryan hurts the campaign due to “Medi-scare”. Ryan is already out there swinging at Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and others about this saying that Obama is the one CUTTING Medicare – more than $700 billion to fund ObamaCare. Ryan’s REFORM plan does not change anything for current seniors – only changes a program destined to go bankrupt in 12 years or less by reforming the system for younger folks. He is articulate and speaks well without a teleprompter. He is determined to get that message out. And – yes, he will definitely cream Biden in a debate. I am very glad that we have Ryan instead of Portman – that ticket would have been more boring than McCain and possibly have the same success rate.
Winning won’t be worth a bucket of warm spit without a mandate to make major changes.
1.Eliminate social security tax and replace with petroleum tax, and if necessary, a national consumption tax.
2. Eliminate corporate income tax and all tax expenditures. Corporations would issue 1099’s to shareholders but must provide dividends sufficient to cover personal income tax at the highest rate. Any congressional subsidy must be paid, not tax credited and sunset after one year. Lower federal income tax rates
3. National right to work.
4. Feds to override state anti growth rules and limit state taxes but eliminate. prop 13 in Cal.
5. Unitary international tax rules + encourage repatriation of corporate capital held overseas.
6. All property taxes must be expressed as full market value. If you buy a property below the assessment, the assessment drops to price paid. If property values increase, rate automatically drops to compensate. States and local governments should not get tax windfall from rising assessments. If they want to increase tax receipts from prop tax, they should have to vote for the increase.
7. Every health plan should be required to offer a natural alternative. This would deemphasize drugs and surgery and instead focus on healthy lifestyles and herbs. Pricing should reflect cost savings. Once this is proven to be cost effective, medicare and medicaid would offer premium support at this level and those who wish to poison themselves with cholesterol reducing drugs or reduce life span with heart surgery can pay for that themselves.