As I noted yesterday in my weekly E-Letter, I thought the Republican National Convention was very good. Team Romney did what they needed to do and moved the needle in their direction. Will the Democrats be able to say the same at the end of this week? That is a good question.
Today we’ll look at the challenges the Democrats face and why their convention has a real chance of falling flat. Following that, we’ll look at some new polls that show the race tightening in key states. Let’s jump right in.
If the first night of the DNC is a forecast for what we can expect over the next couple of days, then the Democrats are making a big mistake – with the exception of Michelle Obama’s speech which she delivered flawlessly and brought down the house.
The core problem faced by the Democrats is the absence of an Obama record on which to run. The question they struggle with is, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Their only answer is, “Things were worse at the end of Bush’s term.” That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for Obama.
That leaves two basic choices: 1) Vote for us because our ideas are better (we just need more time to get those better ideas into place); or 2) Don’t vote for Mitt Romney because he is an evil rich guy who wants to outsource you. It was the latter that was on full display last night, and if that is the tone Democrats set, they are taking a huge risk that it will backfire on them.
No one wants to watch a never-ending series of attacks on the opponent, in this case Romney/Ryan. The people want to know what you did and what you are going to do. But again, the Democrats cannot stand on what they did because their major issue, Obamacare, polls negatively among at least half of the electorate. So they rarely even mention it.
The Democrats need to be careful because Barack Obama is not some scrappy challenger; he is the President of the United States. Wall to wall attacks will make him look desperate and small and devoid of the big ideas that the Democrats so love. The fact that they feel the need to tell us, again, who Obama is (ie – Michelle’s speech) is a bad sign. Don’t we already know?
The major day-one talking point was job creation. You heard again and again that the Obama administration has created 4.5 million new jobs thus far. This literally made me laugh out loud. But it was repeated over and over last night. CNN has an excellent fact-checking piece on that jobs claim. Read it here. Suffice it to say that this is a very cherry-picked and massaged number. As CNN makes clear, fewer Americans are working now than when Obama took office.
The state and national polls of the past few days show the race tightening. Nationally, Romney and Obama are tied (46.8 / 46.8) in the RealClearPolitics.com aggregate of all major national polls. Romney was slightly behind Obama going into the GOP convention.
On the state level, races in IA, NV, OH, FL, CO and VA have all tightened with Romney gaining ground. OH and FL are even and Obama leads in IA, NV and CO by razor thin totals, well within the margin of error. Romney has pulled slightly ahead in VA.
Then there is NC where the DNC is currently being held. Obama won NC by only 14,000 votes in 2008. This is the reason the Dems selected Charlotte as the site for their convention, hoping to assure another win there this year.
Unfortunately for them, Romney boasts a commanding lead in all the recent polls of the state. Issues like gay marriage and 9.6% unemployment don’t play well with North Carolinians, not to mention the fact that NC has been a dependable GOP state for nearly half a century until Obama won it by only 14,000 votes in 2008.
Keep an eye on the DNC for the next couple of days. If the non-headliner speakers continue to spout vitriol about Romney, I predict that Obama will get little or no bounce from their convention. It could even hurt him.
Tonight will be a lot of fun. Bill Clinton is the headliner and nobody knows what he will say. He has not given a copy of his speech to anyone. No one could get away with this but Clinton!
I don’t expect any big surprises, but it is clear that Team Obama and the liberal media are nervous about what the former president might say tonight. One thing is for sure: Clinton will talk a lot about his accomplishments; it remains to be seen if he overshadows President Obama.
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